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Prediction markets
What traders give each outcome in elections, Congress, the courts, the White House and the economy, most traded first. Every bill, vote, member and race page shows the markets on it too.
- Next French Presidential ElectionPolymarket
- Marine Le Pen45%
- David Lisnard14%▼1
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Édouard Philippe10%▲1
- + 7 more outcomes
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- March 3170%▲3
- December 3138%▲3
- December 1527%
- November 3017%▲1
- + 1 more outcome
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- Jon Ossoff27%▲2
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom9%▲1
- Pete Buttigieg6%
- + 12 more outcomes
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- Democratic party99%▲2
- Republican party1%▼1
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- Jon Ossoff25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%▲1
- Gavin Newsom12%▼1
- Kamala Harris6%
- + 12 more outcomes
- Fed Decision in December?Polymarket
- 25 bps increase80%▲3
- No change19%▼4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- + 1 more outcome
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- J.D. Vance33%
- Ron DeSantis17%
- Marco Rubio17%▼4
- John McEntee5%▲2
- + 9 more outcomes
- Presidential Election Winner 2028Polymarket
- Jon Ossoff19%▲2
- JD Vance18%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
- Marco Rubio9%
- + 13 more outcomes
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- J.D. Vance33%
- Marco Rubio20%▼1
- Ron DeSantis15%
- Tucker Carlson4%
- + 6 more outcomes
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- Scott Colom99%
- Cindy Hyde-Smith1%
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- 280-29947%▲30
- 260-27924%▼17
- 300-31922%▲15
- 320-3393%
- + 2 more outcomes
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- Yes10%▲3
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- Yes2%▼1
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
- Yes10%▼3
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- December 31, 202640%
- November 30, 202622%▲6
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- December 3180%
- November 3064%▲8
- November 2253%▲1
- November 1544%▲4
- + 1 more outcome
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- 280-29921%▲7
- 300-31919%▲6
- 320-33914%▲7
- 260-27914%▼4
- + 7 more outcomes
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- Yes4%▲2
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- Raymond Smith Jr.84%
- Greg Murphy15%▼1
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- Yes36%▼9
- Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket
- Yes2%
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- November 3020%▼9
- November 2112%▼6
- November 147%▲1
- Iran leadership change by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 202723%▼1
- December 318%▲1
- November 302%
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket
- Yes83%▲7
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Polymarket
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium14%▲3
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)13%▲3
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)12%▲3
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium9%▼1
- + 2 more outcomes
- Pete Hegseth impeached by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 202785%▲6
- March 31, 202784%▲7
- December 31, 202681%▲7
- Taipei Mayor Election WinnerPolymarket
- Chiang Wan-an68%▲1
- Puma Shen33%▼1
- Kuo Hsi<1%
- US imports Russian diesel by...?Polymarket
- March 3124%▼7
- January 3121%▼5
- December 3118%▼7
- November 3010%▼10
- + 1 more outcome
- Next Prime Minister of Spain?Polymarket
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo93%
- Pedro Sánchez7%
- Santiago Abascal<1%
- Isabel Díaz Ayuso<1%
- + 2 more outcomes
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 20279%▼1
- March 31, 20276%
- December 31, 20262%
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Republican, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Republican index and reflect what the press published, not 4Republican's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use. How to use Politics