The last seventy-two hours, a get-out-the-vote checklist

By the last three days, the yard signs are up, the mailers are in the recycling and nobody is going to be persuaded of anything new. If you are still debating whether to stay for the next debate, you are three days late. What wins now is not a better argument. It is a better list, a better schedule and a volunteer with comfortable shoes.

Here is the secret that every successful campaign knows and every unsuccessful one learns the hard way: persuasion is largely finished, and the contest is about who actually shows up. The side that gets more of its own people to the polls wins the close ones. A supporter who forgot is worth exactly as much as a supporter who was convinced, and a lot cheaper to reach. This checklist is for the final seventy-two hours, grouped by task, with the reason for each item so you can adjust it to fit your race. Where state law matters, I flag it, because the details of voting rules vary from state to state and you should check yours with your county party's counsel before you act.

Group 1: Cut the lists, and cut them hard

The reason for this group: time is the one thing you cannot buy more of. Every minute a volunteer spends on a person who is not going to vote for you, or who already voted, is a minute taken from someone who might still stay home.

• Build the walk list and the phone list from identified supporters only. These are people who told you, in earlier contacts, that they plan to vote for your candidate. Reason: the final days are for turnout, not persuasion. Persuasion calls now spend hours you will not get back.
• Remove everyone who has already voted. In many states the county election office publishes lists of voters who have returned an absentee or early-vote ballot, and the party can download it. Pull the latest list each morning. Reason: nobody likes being asked to do something they have already done, and every contact with an early voter is a contact stolen from a supporter who still needs one.
• Sort what is left by how likely the person is to forget. Put people who rarely vote in midterms, or who just moved, or who have no vote history, at the top. Dependable voters get a reminder; occasional ones get a visit. Reason: the person who always votes will vote anyway. The person who sometimes does is the one you can still move.
• Keep a "do not contact" list. Anyone who asked to be left alone, and anyone known to be traveling or unwell, comes off the list. Reason: respect, and the fact that a bad contact costs more than none.
• Match the list to the turf. Group addresses by street and drive time so volunteers do not zigzag. Reason: a walker who spends twenty minutes in the car for ten minutes of knocking is a walker who goes home early.

Group 2: Count the volunteers, and do the math

The reason for this group: a plan that assumes more volunteer hours than you have is a wish. Do the arithmetic on Monday and Tuesday, when you can still fix it.

Here is a hypothetical example, with round numbers that are not from any real campaign. Suppose you have 30 volunteer shifts of three hours each across the final weekend, and a volunteer can reasonably knock 20 doors an hour.

• 3 hours x 20 doors = 60 doors per shift.
• 30 shifts x 60 doors = 1,800 doors.

If 1,800 doors is the capacity, then the walk list should hold about 1,800 homes, not 5,000. Suppose one door in three opens (also hypothetical).

• 1,800 / 3 = 600 conversations.

Now you know what you are buying: about 600 conversations. If the race looks like it will be decided by a few hundred votes, that is a lot. If it will be decided by a few thousand, you need more shifts, more phone volunteers or a smaller target. Our the win-number worksheet, how many votes does your race really take helps you pin down that number.

• Confirm every shift by phone, not just by email. Reason: a volunteer who said yes two weeks ago is a maybe today.
• Overbook by about a fifth. Some will not show. Reason: the volunteers who do show are worth more than the empty chairs.
• Brief each shift with the same two-minute script. Give a map, a packet, a charger and a name to call. Reason: confusion is the enemy of the last weekend.
• Feed them. Snacks and water, as the law allows for volunteers. Reason: the shift that gets a sandwich comes back.

For the long game of keeping volunteers after the election, see a playbook for rebuilding the volunteer base after a hard election night.

Group 3: Early voting and absentee ballots

The reason for this group: in many states, a big share of the vote is cast before election day. A supporter's ballot that is in the mail is a vote you can still lose, if it arrives late or is rejected on a technicality.

• Check the deadlines for your state. Some states require absentee ballots to be received by election day, and some count ballots postmarked by election day that arrive within a set window. Some have closed the window to request a ballot by now. The county election office will tell you. Reason: the single most common way a supporter loses a vote is by missing a date.
• Remind supporters who have a ballot but have not returned it. Encourage returning it by the safest route the county offers, such as in person to the election office or a designated drop location, and mailing early enough to arrive. Reason: the mail is slow and the rules are strict.
• Tell people to follow the instructions exactly. Sign where required, use the proper envelope, include any identification the state asks for. Reason: a ballot that is rejected for a missing signature counts for no one.
• Know your state's rules on who may return someone else's ballot. This is where state law varies the most. Some states allow a family member or a designated person to return a voter's ballot. Some limit how many ballots one person may return. Some bar third parties altogether. A few require the person to sign a form. Reason: a well-meaning volunteer who picks up ballots in violation of state law can create a legal mess for the voter, the volunteer and the campaign. If your party's counsel has not given you a clear rule in writing, do not collect ballots.
• Never mark, fill out or fix someone else's ballot. Lawful assistance for a voter who asks for it follows state rules and is a separate matter; a volunteer does not do it on the doorstep. Reason: forging, altering or tampering with a voter's ballot is a crime in every state, and a campaign cannot afford even the appearance of it.
• Know the early-vote locations and hours. They are often different from the polling place and may vary by day. Reason: voters get turned away at the wrong door.

Group 4: Rides, and the rules of giving help

The reason for this group: a ride is one of the most useful things a campaign can offer, and one of the easiest places to step on a legal rule.

• Set up a ride-request number. A simple phone line staffed by a volunteer is enough. Reason: some supporters would vote if the trip were easy.
• Check your state and federal rules on rides before you advertise them. The rules on providing transportation to voters differ by state, and for federal races the Federal Election Commission has its own rules about what counts as a campaign expense and how it is reported. Ask the party's counsel, and write the policy down. Reason: transportation can be treated as a contribution or an expense, and the rules are specific.
• Do not condition help on how someone will vote. Offer to take anyone who asks, or follow the policy your counsel gives you. Reason: it is both the right thing and the safer one.
• Do not pay anyone, or give anything of value, in exchange for voting. Federal law makes it a crime to pay or offer to pay someone for voting or registering (52 U.S.C. 10307(c)), and many states have their own laws on gifts to voters. Reason: a free cup of coffee at the door can still cost a campaign dearly if a state law says otherwise. Ask first, do it right, and do not improvise.
• Have drivers use their own insurance and keep the car legal. Report mileage rules to the counsel if required. Reason: the day you do not want a fender-bender is election day.

Group 5: What a volunteer may say at the door and on the phone

The reason for this group: a volunteer's job is to remind, not to pressure, and nothing hurts a campaign like a doorstep argument.

• Open with the purpose. "Hi, I'm with the county Republican Party. I'm checking that you have a plan to vote on Tuesday." Reason: it is honest and quick.
• Give the date, the hours and the polling place or early-vote site. Have the address from the county's official lookup, not from an old mailer. Reason: polling places change, and a wrong address costs a vote.
• Tell them what to bring. If your state requires ID, say so. Link to the county page for what is accepted. Reason: the voter who shows up without it has a harder day than they should.
• Offer help with the plan. "Do you know where you'll vote? What time works for you? Do you need a ride?" Reason: a specific plan is easier to keep than a vague intention.
• Do not ask a person who they voted for, and do not try to see their ballot. Reason: the vote is secret, and a question like that makes an honest reminder feel like surveillance.
• Do not misstate the rules, even to be helpful. If you do not know the answer, say so, and give them the county office number. Reason: a wrong answer can cost a vote and embarrass a campaign.
• Be careful how you use the voted list. Many places publish who has voted. It is fine to use it to skip people who have already voted. It is not fine to make a neighbor feel watched. Reason: the goal is a reminder, not a scolding.
• Follow the calling rules. Federal law restricts the use of automatic dialers and prerecorded messages to cell phones, and rules on text messaging apply as well. Use live volunteers dialing by hand or a method your counsel has cleared, and honor do-not-call requests. Reason: a violation can cost the campaign money and goodwill.

Our walkthroughs on door-knocking that works, a walkthrough from the turf map to the thank-you and running a phone bank, scripts, lists, rules and what to do with the results go deeper on the scripts.

Group 6: Election day, polling places and the closing line

The reason for this group: on the last day, the job is to keep reminding and to keep people in line.

• Send a morning reminder to your remaining supporters: the hours, the address and the ID. Reason: many people vote on the way to work.
• Staff the list, not the polling place. Volunteers who campaign inside the limit risk breaking the law. Every state sets a zone around the polling place where campaigning is banned, measured in feet. Know the distance. Reason: electioneering inside the zone is illegal in every state, and it gives the other side a story.
• Keep observers separate from get-out-the-vote work. A poll watcher observes. A canvasser reminds. They are different jobs for different people. See lawful poll watching, what you may see, what you may say, what to report. Reason: mixing them confuses both jobs and invites complaints.
• Send an afternoon and an early-evening push to supporters who still have not voted. Use the county's updated list if the law lets you. Reason: people forget about the evening.
• Deliver the closing line: "If you are in line when the polls close, stay in line." In general, voters who are already in line at closing time are allowed to vote, but confirm the rule with your county. Reason: a voter who gives up and walks out of a long line at the last minute loses the vote for good.
• Never tell anyone that it is too late unless you are sure. Reason: that mistake costs votes, and we are in the business of getting them.

If you want to understand why every single vote matters this much, Why every Republican owes the primary election a vote, every time makes the case, and how to read your ballot before you get to the voting booth can go in the packet.

Group 7: The debrief

The reason for this group: the work you do after the polls close is what makes the next election easier.

• Record what happened. How many doors, calls and rides? How many volunteers came? Which streets answered, and which did not? Reason: numbers let you improve. Memory lets you excuse.
• Update the list. Mark who voted, who moved, who asked to be left alone. Reason: the next campaign starts from the best list you can leave it.
• Thank every volunteer personally, by phone or in writing, within a few days. Reason: the people who feel noticed come back.
• Hold a short meeting while the lessons are fresh, and write down three things to keep and three to change. Reason: it takes an hour now and saves a month next time.
• Keep the volunteers warm. An election ends, but the party's work does not. For ideas, read how supporters can help a minority party between elections, step by step. Reason: volunteers you lose in November are volunteers you have to recruit again in the spring.

The bottom line

• In the last seventy-two hours, persuasion is over. The only question is which side moves more of its own supporters to the polls.
• Cut the walk and phone lists to identified supporters who have not voted yet. Pull the early-vote list each morning.
• Do the arithmetic on volunteer shifts and doors, so the plan matches the people you have.
• Know your state's limits on collecting ballots, giving rides, giving anything of value to voters and calling cell phones. When in doubt, ask the party's counsel and follow the written answer.
• End with the closing line: stay in line, and after the polls close, thank the volunteers who did the work.